Supplementary Information

[1] M. Kröger, R. Schlickeiser,
Forecast made on January 11, 2021 for the second Covid-19 wave based on the improved SIR model with a constant ratio of recovery to infection rate,
Royal Society Open Science (2021) submitted 16 Jan 2021

Related work:

[2] R. Schlickeiser, M. Kröger, Analytical solution of the SIR-model for the temporal evolution of epidemics. Part B. Semi-time case, J. Phys. A 54 (2021) 175601.

[3] M. Kröger, R. Schlickeiser, Analytical solution of the SIR-model for the temporal evolution of epidemics. Part A: Time-independent reproduction factor, J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 53 (2020) 505601.

Quantities shown below (for 72 countries at present, using data available on Jul 22, 2021 CET) are explained in the manuscript [2], they may be understood with [1,3] at hand. Table entries are shown only for waves that have been automatically recognized by the software updating this website twice a day. Scroll down for related graphs. Please contact the authors if you'd like to receive a preprint. Legend: Country name and its α₃ code used to label graphs, population N, fitted ratio k between recovery and infection rate a₀, fitted date of outbreak t₀, number of infected persons at outbreak ηN, peak time t_m, infected cumulative fraction J_∞ of the population after the end of the corresponding wave, precision (prec.) of the fit, total number of persons J_∞N that had been infected at the end of the wave, early doubling time t₂, late half decay time t_1/2, projected total amount of fatalities D_∞ at the end of the wave. Note that all predictions are based on the semi-time SIR model. Hyperlinks on this page are colored.

I. Countries

country	α3	wave	N	k	ηN	a0	t0	tm	J∞	prec.	J∞N	t2	t1/2	D∞
		number	[millions]		[persons]	[days-1]	[date]	[date]	[%]	[%]	[persons]	[days]	[days]	[persons]
Afghanistan	AFG	#1	34.7	0.999	272	14.73	2020-06-20	2020-06-27	0.5	10	166117	12	12	831
Afghanistan	AFG	#2	34.7	0.988	773	5.13	2021-05-23	2021-06-30	3.1	13.6	1066536	10	10	5333
Albania	ALB	#2	2.9	0.918	1173	0.25	2020-08-14	2021-01-21	17.5	5.3	502291	32	34	2511
Armenia	ARM	#2	2.9	0.915	1143	0.51	2020-09-05	2020-11-23	22.9	10.6	671142	15	16	3356
Austria	AUT	#2	8.7	0.898	153	0.43	2020-07-07	2020-12-13	20.5	6.7	1790346	16	17	8952
Azerbaijan	AZE	#2	9.8	0.973	236	2.22	2020-10-07	2020-12-12	6	11.8	584851	11	11	2924
Belgium	BEL	#2	11.3	0.893	2058	0.53	2020-08-28	2020-11-18	36.9	8.6	4182443	12	13	20912
Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	#2	3.5	0.656	55515	0.04	2020-08-31	2021-02-06	65.8	12.4	2314102	45	61	11571
Brazil	BRA	#1	207.7	0.926	7572	0.42	2020-01-07	2020-07-06	14.4	14.7	29897004	22	23	149485
Brazil	BRA	#2	207.7	0.743	286227	0.08	2020-09-15	2021-04-18	61.3	2.3	127219838	34	42	636099
Bulgaria	BGR	#2	7.1	0.686	42945	0.06	2020-08-17	2021-02-15	59.1	6.5	4213678	39	51	21068
Canada	CAN	#2	36.3	0.957	1836	0.78	2020-09-01	2021-01-04	13.5	3.4	4890839	20	21	24454
Chile	CHL	#1	17.9	0.942	1794	1.11	2020-04-18	2020-06-21	11.5	17.2	2061524	11	11	10308
Chile	CHL	#2	17.9	0.745	75867	0.04	2020-06-21	2021-05-17	58.5	8.1	10480772	70	87	52404
Croatia	HRV	#2	4.2	0.845	254	0.28	2020-07-19	2020-12-15	30.7	10.6	1282346	16	18	6412
Cuba	CUB	#1	11.5	1	3	184.36	2020-04-22	2020-04-22	0.1	10.4	8145	5	5	41
Cuba	CUB	#2	11.5	0.964	215	0.7	2021-01-09	2021-07-19	7.3	5.5	837438	27	27	4187
Czechia	CZE	#2	10.6	0.688	1394	0.09	2020-04-12	2020-12-29	55.5	6.7	5858917	26	33	29295
Denmark	DNK	#2	5.7	0.972	206	2.48	2020-11-18	2021-01-10	6.8	6.9	390197	10	10	1951
Ecuador	ECU	#1	16.4	0.96	619	0.96	2020-01-30	2020-05-22	7.9	17.7	1299815	18	18	6499
Ecuador	ECU	#2	16.4	0.999	5049	156.49	2020-09-06	2020-09-06	10.5	18.9	1713642	0	0	8568
Estonia	EST	#2	1.3	0.904	176	0.33	2020-10-09	2021-03-09	19.4	3	254770	22	23	1274
Finland	FIN	#1	5.5	1	115	12.91	2020-04-21	2020-04-21	0.6	19	35496	8	8	177
Finland	FIN	#2	5.5	0.991	208	1.9	2020-11-08	2021-01-24	2.8	8.9	154689	29	29	773
France	FRA	#2	66.9	0.868	6952	0.17	2020-04-09	2020-12-22	33.7	6.5	22539868	31	34	112699
Georgia	GEO	#2	3.7	0.89	142	0.38	2020-07-12	2020-12-11	21.5	9.2	799231	17	18	3996
Germany	DEU	#2	82.7	0.907	885	0.45	2020-07-22	2021-01-12	20	3.8	16509952	16	18	82550
Greece	GRC	#2	10.7	0.867	822	0.13	2020-04-08	2021-03-12	25.6	7.8	2755350	39	43	13777
Guyana	GUY	#1	0.8	0.997	71	0.42	2020-03-09	2020-05-14	1.7	19.7	12849	119	120	64
Guyana	GUY	#2	0.8	0.872	313	0.08	2020-06-17	2021-07-15	26.3	8.5	203495	63	69	1017
Honduras	HND	#1	9.1	0.982	174	3.39	2020-05-25	2020-07-19	3.7	19	334823	11	11	1674
Honduras	HND	#2	9.1	0.864	17886	0.06	2020-07-19	2021-06-29	30.6	12.2	2784984	82	91	13925
Hungary	HUN	#2	9.8	0.603	9504	0.05	2020-06-06	2021-02-16	67.8	4.7	6658820	32	46	33294
Ireland	IRL	#2	4.8	0.944	178	1.4	2020-11-27	2021-01-30	17.3	9.6	823438	9	9	4117
Israel	ISR	#2	8.5	1	23782	0.26	2021-01-04	2020-12-28	11	19.5	939779	36	37	4699
Italy	ITA	#2	60.6	0.823	5386	0.13	2020-04-04	2021-01-07	44.5	7.3	26946031	30	34	134730
Jamaica	JAM	#2	2.9	0.94	237	0.19	2020-05-03	2021-05-15	12.1	6.6	348798	59	61	1744
Korea South	KOR	#2	25.4	1	272	15.61	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	0.6	13.7	153130	10	10	766
Kuwait	KWT	#1	4.1	0.992	224	3.58	2020-05-05	2020-06-02	2.1	17.1	83148	15	15	416
Kuwait	KWT	#2	4.1	0.911	744	0.12	2020-06-02	2021-07-21	19.5	4.9	791370	65	69	3957
Latvia	LVA	#2	2	0.865	148	0.21	2020-06-28	2021-01-26	26	7.6	509462	24	27	2547
Lebanon	LBN	#2	6	0.872	644	0.26	2020-09-01	2021-02-19	26.7	2.2	1606265	21	23	8031
Lithuania	LTU	#2	2.9	0.864	218	0.33	2020-08-16	2020-12-29	26.3	6.7	754011	15	17	3770
Luxembourg	LUX	#2	0.6	0.863	170	0.19	2020-06-22	2020-12-16	28.9	11.7	168673	26	28	843
Malaysia	MYS	#1	31.2	1	3	213.78	2020-03-30	2020-03-31	0	10.3	14929	7	7	75
Malaysia	MYS	#2	31.2	0.957	158	0.76	2020-12-31	2021-07-20	8.5	6.9	2651900	21	22	13260
Maldives	MDV	#1	0.4	0.991	91	0.41	2020-03-25	2020-06-16	3.1	11.6	12854	76	76	64
Maldives	MDV	#2	0.4	0.973	91	3.88	2021-05-08	2021-05-24	9.1	11.9	38097	5	5	190
Malta	MLT	#2	0.4	0.895	211	0.2	2020-07-11	2020-12-29	21	12.8	91702	31	34	459
Mauritania	MRT	#2	4.3	0.999	80	17.86	2020-12-20	2020-12-21	1.1	6.5	45623	6	6	228
Mexico	MEX	#2	127.5	1	1437743	0.12	2021-02-03	2021-01-17	26.7	15.3	34017855	38	40	170089
Moldova	MDA	#2	3.6	0.825	4249	0.1	2020-06-30	2021-02-07	40.2	8.1	1427445	40	46	7137
Namibia	NAM	#1	2.5	1	22	14.95	2020-08-16	2020-08-16	0.4	9.1	10426	11	11	52
Namibia	NAM	#2	2.5	0.852	175	0.46	2021-04-14	2021-07-17	28.5	12.5	706055	10	11	3530
Nepal	NPL	#1	29	0.999	725	0.94	2020-06-25	2020-08-20	0.9	14.5	249263	102	102	1246
Nepal	NPL	#2	29	0.982	1377	6.1	2021-04-28	2021-05-20	4.7	15.4	1358141	6	6	6791
Netherlands	NLD	#2	17	0.926	574	0.37	2020-06-02	2020-12-31	21.6	4.5	3682985	26	27	18415
North Macedonia	MKD	#2	2.1	0.681	9592	0.05	2020-07-03	2021-02-15	62	6.4	1291108	44	58	6456
Norway	NOR	#2	5.2	0.993	152	2.32	2020-11-09	2021-01-17	2.2	3.7	114475	29	29	572
Oman	OMN	#1	4.4	0.978	186	1.6	2020-05-16	2020-08-07	4.6	11.6	201884	18	18	1009
Oman	OMN	#2	4.4	0.947	2028	0.62	2021-04-17	2021-06-25	15.6	14.3	690583	19	19	3453
Panama	PAN	#2	4	0.909	4196	0.42	2020-10-31	2021-01-05	28.8	6.4	1161617	17	18	5808
Paraguay	PRY	#1	6.7	0.994	182	1.1	2020-03-28	2020-08-19	1.6	16	107271	65	65	536
Paraguay	PRY	#2	6.7	0.736	3681	0.11	2020-12-05	2021-06-03	49.5	11.7	3326037	23	29	16630
Peru	PER	#1	31.8	0.64	34365	0.08	2020-01-05	2020-07-03	62.3	10.7	19783651	24	33	98918
Peru	PER	#2	31.8	0.531	83774	0.06	2020-10-05	2021-03-20	138.6	9.4	44025635	24	39	220128
Poland	POL	#2	37.9	0.771	15806	0.08	2020-05-17	2021-02-16	43.2	5.4	16397845	36	43	81989
Portugal	PRT	#2	10.3	0.885	681	0.8	2020-11-23	2021-01-26	25.3	19.9	2613047	7	8	13065
Qatar	QAT	#1	2.6	0.998	74	7.15	2020-06-14	2020-06-23	1	12.6	25569	12	12	128
Qatar	QAT	#2	2.6	0.992	122	6.73	2021-04-05	2021-04-23	3	8.5	77351	8	8	387
Russia	RUS	#2	144.3	0.801	1004395	0.03	2020-06-21	2021-05-26	39.2	16	56556052	100	117	282780
Rwanda	RWA	#1	11.9	0.999	72	0.34	2020-04-21	2021-03-02	0.4	14.4	50287	574	575	251
Rwanda	RWA	#2	11.9	0.992	385	1.3	2021-03-23	2021-07-21	2.4	12.1	285618	46	46	1428
Serbia	SRB	#2	7.1	0.901	4511	0.19	2020-08-16	2021-02-07	23.5	15.6	1661526	36	38	8308
Slovakia	SVK	#2	5.4	0.733	390	0.12	2020-07-01	2021-02-14	48.3	1.6	2622199	21	27	13111
Slovenia	SVN	#2	2.1	0.79	176	0.23	2020-07-20	2020-12-08	39.5	4.9	814898	14	17	4074
Somalia	SOM	#1	15	1	4	96.46	2020-05-06	2020-05-16	0.1	18.6	15335	9	9	77
Somalia	SOM	#2	15	1	152	13.49	2021-03-21	2021-03-20	0.6	3.1	82780	11	11	414
South Africa	ZAF	#1	55.9	0.968	228	1.66	2020-04-12	2020-08-06	6.4	18.7	3573096	13	13	17865
South Africa	ZAF	#2	55.9	0.955	44853	1.1	2020-12-16	2021-01-14	16.7	5.3	9314596	11	11	46573
Spain	ESP	#2	46.4	0.879	5569	0.19	2020-04-29	2020-12-23	32.9	12.6	15262460	30	33	76312
Suriname	SUR	#1	0.6	0.987	77	2.32	2020-07-19	2020-08-17	3.4	8.2	19184	14	14	96
Suriname	SUR	#2	0.6	0.912	263	0.71	2021-04-23	2021-06-14	20.9	5.8	116486	11	11	582
Sweden	SWE	#1	9.9	0.936	363	0.84	2020-01-20	2020-04-28	12.6	19.1	1249652	13	13	6248
Sweden	SWE	#2	9.9	0.919	1173	0.58	2020-10-05	2021-01-10	28.6	4.6	2828865	14	15	14144
Switzerland	CHE	#2	8.4	0.892	186	0.44	2020-07-18	2020-12-09	25.3	3.8	2117590	14	16	10588
Trinidad and Tobago	TTO	#1	1.4	1	6	40.11	2020-03-13	2020-03-13	0.3	12.4	3900	6	6	20
Trinidad and Tobago	TTO	#2	1.4	0.929	168	0.84	2021-03-26	2021-06-06	14.3	9.2	194603	11	12	973
Tunisia	TUN	#2	11.4	0.902	301	0.26	2020-04-13	2020-12-27	19	8.9	2169299	27	29	10846
Turkey	TUR	#2	79.5	0.929	9023	0.19	2020-04-20	2021-03-09	15.1	5.2	12002206	50	53	60011
Ukraine	UKR	#2	45	1	427744	0.11	2021-03-25	2021-03-08	15.3	9	6876286	45	47	34381
United Arab Emirates	ARE	#2	9.3	0.992	431	3.67	2021-01-18	2021-02-19	2.3	15.1	215821	15	15	1079
United Kingdom	GBR	#2	65.6	0.874	3033	0.44	2020-09-21	2021-01-16	36.2	9.1	23767067	13	14	118835
United States of America	USA	#2	323.1	0.87	305494	0.22	2020-09-12	2021-01-09	34.7	7.4	112203644	23	26	561018
Uruguay	URY	#1	3.4	1	30	2.8	2020-02-12	2020-02-11	0.4	14	14403	59	59	72
Uruguay	URY	#2	3.4	0.813	211	0.24	2020-12-03	2021-05-09	35.3	2.6	1214955	16	18	6075

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26 April 2024 mk