Covid-19: SIRD model applied to all countries. Real-time statistics

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Covid-19 data from 25-Aug-2020 analyzed with the SIRD model

Diego Giovanoli, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Reproduction Number: SIRD fitted
Intervention Date: SIRD fitted
Intervention k: SIRD fitted
Total Population: (P) A simple data of the world by country each in JSON format link (retrieved on June 18, 2020)
Cumulative casualties today: Reported
New casualties today: Reported
Final estimated casualties: SIRD prediction
Day with maximal casualties: SIRD prediction
Relative total infections: = D(t0)/(mortality rate times P)
t0: Last day before first reported death
Recovery Rate: Set to 0.1923 (Ganyani T, Kremer C, Chen D, Torneri A, Faes C, Wallinga J, et al. Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data. medRxiv. 2020)
Mortality rate: Set to 0.005 (link)
Intervention delta: Set to 10
Susceptible at t0: S(t0) = P-I(t0)-D(t0)-R(t0)
Infected at t0: Set to I(t0)=40
Recovered at t0: R(t0)=0
Dead at t0: D(t0)=0

Country ↑↓Daily
casualties
Cumulative
casualties
Reproduction
Number ↑↓
Intervention
Date ↑↓
Intervention
k ↑↓
Total
Population ↑↓
Cumulative
casualties
today ↑↓
New
casualties
today ↑↓
Final
estimated
casualties ↑↓
Day with
maximal
casualties ↑↓
Relative
total
infections ↑↓
t0 ↑↓














Afghanistan2.104217 Apr0.499337172000164922------0.009522 Mar
Albania1.558229 Mar0.717928664002686------0.02111 Mar
Algeria2.835730 Mar0.346742228000137973416.93 Apr0.006712 Mar
Andorra3.18694 Apr0.20547700652075.5966 Apr0.134922 Mar
Angola1.15966 Jun0.99308100001043------0.000829 Mar
Antigua and Barbuda2.361618 Apr0.0196286304.011617 Apr0.00647 Apr
Argentina2.123529 Mar0.5455444950007291214------0.03798 Mar
Armenia1.864125 Apr0.566295180097914---10 Sep0.071126 Mar
Australia2.290324 Mar0.3208249830001670214.1926 Mar0.00131 Mar
Austria2.61835 Apr0.255288405007000951.717 Apr0.015812 Mar
Azerbaijan1.71418 Apr0.6357993980062712------0.013813 Mar
Bahrain1.694215 Apr0.565415694001451227.6618 Apr0.018816 Mar
Bangladesh2.028420 Apr0.5126161360000415550---11 Sep0.005518 Mar
Barbados2.872216 Apr0.01042866407010.13916 Apr0.00495 Apr
Belarus2.269324 Apr0.415894835005962988.1727 Apr0.012831 Mar
Belgium3.02627 Apr0.24121143300098850138629 Apr0.172911 Mar
Belize2.136717 Apr0.01383070202.81416 Apr0.00126 Apr
Benin1.434322 Apr0.752411485000491---10 Sep0.00096 Apr
Bolivia2.220522 Apr0.5071113530005040121------0.099929 Mar
Bosnia and Herzegovina1.805417 Apr0.580733239004876------0.031321 Mar
Botswana2.041326 Apr0.0809225410049059.6725 Apr0.004331 Mar
Brazil2.875414 Apr0.36362094700001223101432---10 Sep0.123917 Mar
Brunei1.000219 Apr0.9352428960303.853412 Apr0.001528 Mar
Bulgaria2.03131 Mar0.52370250005508---11 Sep0.016811 Mar
Burkina Faso2.90451 Apr0.251975200054077.7863 Apr0.000518 Mar
Burundi1.555924 Apr0.0111175000101.176121 Apr013 Apr
Cabo Verde1.11614 Apr0.99543770411------0.016824 Mar
Cameroon1.94323 Apr0.4931252160004362753.8526 Apr0.003525 Mar
Canada2.70626 Apr0.337837058000970716145839 Apr0.05289 Mar
Central African Republic1.903820 Jun0.2871466640060071.40820 Jun0.002623 May
Chad3.93910 May0.086115478000740130.1911 May0.00128 Apr
Chile2.482217 Apr0.43231872900012838196------0.14822 Mar
China3.424911 Feb0.23961392700000465507427.414 Feb0.000722 Jan
Colombia1.912228 Apr0.6014964900018954529------0.087522 Mar
Comoros1.206426 Jun0.0104832320707.403821 Jun0.00176 May
Congo Brazzaville1.770119 Apr0.58265244400751------0.0032 Apr
Costa Rica1.27064 Apr0.9316499940036112------0.017119 Mar
Cote dIvoire1.899517 Apr0.5378250690001231---10 Sep0.00129 Mar
Croatia2.18349 Apr0.41640878001470200.4111 Apr0.007319 Mar
Cuba1.866217 Apr0.360411338000870102.8418 Apr0.001518 Mar
Cyprus2.045812 Apr0.1461118930018022.18411 Apr0.00322 Mar
Czechia2.88810 Apr0.2605106300003640523.1912 Apr0.006922 Mar
Denmark2.55938 Apr0.231657936005960800.9410 Apr0.020614 Mar
Djibouti1.430126 May0.595295892063071.84727 May0.013210 Apr
Dominican Republic2.248913 Apr0.427910627000126352297.916 Apr0.024317 Mar
Ecuador2.327615 Apr0.413170840006361261144918 Apr0.07614 Mar
Egypt2.22795 Apr0.476198424000626790------0.01378 Mar
El Salvador1.565 May0.718642070075518------0.026531 Mar
Equatorial Guinea1.695614 May0.61591309000951---11 Sep0.015522 Apr
Estonia3.31776 Apr0.20711322000680105.249 Apr0.010225 Mar
Eswatini1.183627 May0.991136200913------0.018816 Apr
Ethiopia1.50247 May0.770210922000065420------0.00145 Apr
Finland2.311116 Apr0.305355155003330427.5518 Apr0.012121 Mar
France2.858415 Mar0.3156697700032427264706418 Mar0.097215 Feb
Gabon1.589412 Apr0.62742119300580148.7616 Apr0.005620 Mar
Gambia1.120515 Apr0.98872280100461---11 Sep0.004423 Mar
Georgia1.58783 May0.3153372650015016.9092 May0.00084 Apr
Germany2.93455 Apr0.2678290600092201133267 Apr0.02239 Mar
Ghana1.537120 Apr0.7014297670002765---10 Sep0.00221 Mar
Greece2.834127 Mar0.3015107320002080300.3330 Mar0.003911 Mar
Guatemala1.990610 Apr0.562517248000303269------0.039416 Mar
Guinea1.74827 May0.54031241400051080.96610 May0.000815 Apr
Guyana1.276413 Apr0.770577900024044.39616 Apr0.006312 Mar
Haiti1.95225 Apr0.5318111230002203---11 Sep0.00425 Apr
Honduras1.814927 Apr0.60269587500190036---10 Sep0.043726 Mar
Hungary2.213212 Apr0.375497756006130781.7515 Apr0.012615 Mar
Iceland1.74887 Apr0.179535272010011.625 Apr0.005715 Mar
India2.81193 Apr0.39711352600000620641432------0.010311 Mar
Indonesia2.3697 Apr0.4383267660000656273------0.005211 Mar
Iran2.831514 Mar0.36058180000020048160------0.051119 Feb
Iraq1.84667 Apr0.6083384340007539178------0.04414 Mar
Ireland2.48968 Apr0.32544867300180802385.910 Apr0.074411 Mar
Israel2.60577 Apr0.38488828006535---11 Sep0.015221 Mar
Italy3.316317 Mar0.25856042200036176115487720 Mar0.119921 Feb
Jamaica1.58479 Apr0.5152293490011012.8510 Apr0.000819 Mar
Japan2.28388 Mar0.4278126530000120852252.912 Mar0.001913 Feb
Jordan2.7687 Apr0.1798995600010013.8088 Apr0.000227 Mar
Kazakhstan1.556916 Apr0.761918272000172461------0.022420 Mar
Kenya1.652122 Apr0.67415139300057813------0.002526 Mar
Korea South2.504612 Mar0.3282516070002950394.514 Mar0.001120 Feb
Kosovo1.254315 May0.9463184530050517------0.064723 Mar
Kuwait1.85678 May0.505341373005112788.6511 May0.02524 Apr
Kyrgyzstan2.104230 Apr0.48966322800135915------0.04553 Apr
Latvia2.649615 Apr0.3239192720032045.76818 Apr0.00343 Apr
Lebanon1.811522 Mar0.591668489001002------0.003110 Mar
Liberia1.825722 Apr0.56024819000901---11 Sep0.00394 Apr
Libya1.480419 Apr0.768166786001735------0.00592 Apr
Liechtenstein1.563415 Apr0.010637910101.18512 Apr0.00544 Apr
Lithuania2.30388 Apr0.36592801500820106.5511 Apr0.005921 Mar
Luxembourg2.53032 Apr0.28886079501140152.454 Apr0.037614 Mar
Madagascar1.7269 Jun0.6646262620002136------0.001917 May
Malawi1.317711 May0.8733181430002016------0.00267 Apr
Malaysia2.57516 Apr0.1823315290001190161.237 Apr0.000817 Mar
Maldives1.457519 May0.7008515700240------0.009929 Apr
Mali1.844925 Apr0.4922190780001340175.4528 Apr0.001429 Mar
Malta1.777624 Apr0.43774846309010.8526 Apr0.00388 Apr
Mauritania2.325122 Apr0.238444033001140147.0223 Apr0.005230 Mar
Mauritius3.06731 Apr0.0475126530010014.8362 Apr0.001621 Mar
Mexico2.749415 Apr0.389412619000066353994------0.113519 Mar
Moldova2.009214 Apr0.509727060009869------0.076418 Mar
Monaco1.66517 Apr0.0138682404.593515 Apr0.020829 Mar
Montenegro1.15274 Apr0.99622230922------0.033623 Mar
Morocco1.72113 Apr0.5911360290005615------0.003310 Mar
Mozambique1.55417 Jun0.57262949600017023.2719 Jun0.000125 May
Nepal1.75810 Jun0.5757280880001061---11 Sep0.000816 May
Netherlands2.89381 Apr0.264717232000623208807.74 Apr0.07236 Mar
New Zealand2.256816 Apr0.1764484100022027.96516 Apr0.000929 Mar
Nicaragua1.509430 Apr0.679964655001482---9 Sep0.004827 Mar
Niger1.969319 Apr0.37812244300070083.90920 Apr0.000625 Mar
Nigeria2.076618 Apr0.4931195870000110811---11 Sep0.001223 Mar
North Macedonia2.080413 Apr0.502420830006267---9 Sep0.063822 Mar
Norway2.62624 Apr0.265853119002520343.216 Apr0.009514 Mar
Oman1.884921 Apr0.5914482950070016------0.032531 Mar
Pakistan2.535112 Apr0.4059212220000737976---11 Sep0.007318 Mar
Panama2.12932 Apr0.5134176900208437---11 Sep0.109111 Mar
Paraguay1.17193 Apr0.989169561001515------0.00521 Mar
Peru2.479517 Apr0.44113198900028744500------0.196320 Mar
Philippines2.196425 Feb0.4819106650000283436---9 Sep0.00572 Feb
Poland2.4296 Apr0.39173797500019036323410 Apr0.010212 Mar
Portugal3.8831 Apr0.226210284000176313120.84 Apr0.034417 Mar
Qatar1.875318 Apr0.55727817002273---10 Sep0.017328 Mar
Romania3.04719 Apr0.327194660002920209677.213 Apr0.03122 Mar
Russia2.547916 Apr0.40414448000017740184---10 Sep0.025919 Mar
Rwanda1.183729 Jun0.896812302000100------0.000230 May
San Marino2.127227 Mar0.1423378541049.26526 Mar0.24493 Mar
Sao Tome and Principe2.312916 May0.202221103014017.90117 May0.01321 May
Saudi Arabia2.271719 Apr0.469633700000404463---9 Sep0.025924 Mar
Senegal2.118517 Apr0.5075158540002975---10 Sep0.00411 Apr
Serbia2.177911 Apr0.469269826006956------0.020920 Mar
Sierra Leone2.247913 May0.3106765020065083.02115 May0.001723 Apr
Singapore1.721415 Apr0.4538563870027031.27216 Apr0.00121 Mar
Slovakia1.557423 Apr0.3283544680029032.21722 Apr0.001118 Mar
Slovenia2.36316 Apr0.206320739001270164.997 Apr0.012314 Mar
Somalia2.384227 Apr0.330615008000950124.3629 Apr0.00138 Apr
South Africa2.113126 Apr0.54285778000014880419------0.059127 Mar
South Sudan2.12275 Jun0.33571097600046058.2026 Jun0.000815 May
Spain3.562726 Mar0.2095467970002854814455429 Mar0.1223 Mar
Sri Lanka2.54568 Apr0.26462167000011014.60410 Apr0.000128 Mar
Sudan1.55464 May0.63764180200090072233.48 May0.004513 Mar
Suriname1.1375 Jul0.9135575990411---9 Sep0.01543 Apr
Sweden2.74576 Apr0.330410175000601798800.99 Apr0.119111 Mar
Switzerland2.683431 Mar0.26558513200198302711.42 Apr0.04665 Mar
Taiwan1.16897 Apr0.521223817000707.22933 Apr0.000116 Feb
Tajikistan4.108813 May0.05319100800560101.6614 May0.00122 May
Tanzania1.920122 Apr0.25425631800021025.27222 Apr0.000131 Mar
Thailand1.67694 Apr0.3966942900058066.5495 Apr0.00021 Mar
Togo1.566424 Apr0.4665788910018019.96224 Apr0.000527 Mar
Trinidad and Tobago1.836815 Apr0.057813899009010.51313 Apr0.001325 Mar
Tunisia2.128512 Apr0.15331156500050061.60812 Apr0.000919 Mar
Turkey3.06329 Apr0.27482320000566928508.912 Apr0.013817 Mar
Ukraine2.28746 Apr0.452744623000229625---9 Sep0.010913 Mar
United Arab Emirates1.955220 Apr0.447296310003630454.5123 Apr0.007620 Mar
United Kingdom2.9935 Apr0.2763664600004205211600087 Apr0.12676 Mar
United States of America3.083129 Mar0.30953266900001688005143093602 Apr0.10529 Feb
Uruguay2.119412 Apr0.4381344930037053.59714 Apr0.002228 Mar
Uzbekistan1.453116 Apr0.7915329550002828------0.00227 Mar
Venezuela1.428314 Apr0.81982887000036112------0.002927 Mar
Yemen2.050230 May0.4555284990005743999.331 Jun0.004130 Apr
Zambia1.496715 Apr0.79151735200034012------0.00462 Apr
Zimbabwe1.16397 Apr0.9897144390001213------0.001923 Mar


02 August 2025
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